Fed Rate Cut Expectations Surge After Weak Jobs Data — Bitcoin Benefits as Risk-On Trade
Weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs numbers have reignited expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts in Q2 2025. Crypto markets are surging as investors rotate into risk assets with Bitcoin leading the rally.
Weaker-than-expected U.S. non-farm payrolls data released Friday morning has significantly boosted market expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in the second quarter of 2025. The economy added only 142,000 jobs in February, well below the 220,000 consensus estimate.
Crypto markets responded positively, with Bitcoin rising 4.2% in the hours following the release. The correlation between risk assets and crypto has grown stronger in 2025 as institutional participation has increased.
CME FedWatch Tool now shows a 68% probability of a 25bps rate cut at the June FOMC meeting, up from 41% the previous week. Historically, Fed rate cutting cycles have been strongly bullish for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market.